The Hindu Analysis March 31

The Hindu News Analysis – 31st March, 2026

Ensuring federalism within delimitation

The continued pursuit of the perfect election

Manufacturing, capital goods lift IIP growth to 5.2% in Feb.

Earliest Census data set to be available in 2027; India has fewer villages than during Census 2011

GS Paper II:
Governance – Census and data collection
Welfare schemes & targeting (use of census data)
GS Paper I:
Population and associated issues
Urbanisation
Context
Census 2027 will be India’s first digital Census with self-enumeration option.
Data release expected in 2027.
Key trend: Decline in number of villages and rise in urban settlements compared to Census 2011.
Prelims concepts:
1. Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner
Role: The authority responsible for conducting the decennial Census.
Ministry: It operates under the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), Government of India.
Significance: It oversees both the census operations and the implementation of the Registration of Births and Deaths Act.
2. The Census Act, 1948 & Data Confidentiality
Statutory Backing: The Indian Census is conducted under the provisions of the Census Act, 1948.
Strict Confidentiality: The data collected is entirely confidential. According to the article, individual data cannot be shared with State governments or even the judiciary.
RTI Exemption: Census data does not come under the purview of the Right to Information (RTI) Act.
No Individual Benefits: The data is released only in aggregate form and cannot be used to provide reservation or targeted welfare benefits to any specific individual.
3. Key "Firsts" of the Upcoming Census
Digital Census: This will be the first time the census is conducted digitally (officials will use mobile apps/tablets).
Self-Enumeration: For the first time, respondents living in India will have the option to fill in their data themselves via an online portal (available in 16 languages).
Caste Enumeration: The article highlights that it will be the first census to explicitly enumerate caste (methodology for this is currently being finalized).
4. Phases of the Census
The Census is typically conducted in two distinct phases:
Phase 1: House Listing Operations (HLO). This involves identifying and listing all houses and structures, and gathering data on amenities available to households. (Scheduled for April 1 - September 30).
Phase 2: Population Enumeration. This is the actual headcount where individual demographic data (religion, caste, occupation, migration status, etc.) is collected. (Scheduled for February 2027).
5. Administrative Classifications: Statutory vs. Census Towns
The article notes an increase in both Statutory and Census towns, and a decrease in villages. Understanding the distinction is a classic UPSC geography/economy concept:
Statutory Towns: Urban areas defined by administrative notification. They have a local body like a Municipal Corporation, Municipality, Cantonment Board, or Notified Town Area Committee.
Census Towns: Areas that are technically classified as rural by the administration (they have a Gram Panchayat) but are classified as "urban" by the Census because they exhibit urban characteristics. They must meet all three of the following criteria:
A minimum population of 5,000.
At least 75% of the male main working population engaged in non-agricultural pursuits.
A population density of at least 400 persons per square kilometer.
UPSC MCQ:
Q. Consider the following statements regarding the upcoming Census in India:
The upcoming Census will be India’s first fully digital Census with a provision for self-enumeration.
Census data can be accessed under the Right to Information (RTI) Act for individual-level details.
The Census is conducted under the provisions of the Census Act, 1948.
The Census data can be used as legal evidence in courts.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
A) 1 and 3 only
B) 1, 2 and 3 only
C) 2 and 4 only
D) 1, 3 and 4 only

Correct Answer:
A) 1 and 3 only
Explanation
Statement 1: Correct – Census 2027 will be digital with self-enumeration.
Statement 2: Incorrect – Individual data is confidential and not under RTI.
Statement 3: Correct – Governed by Census Act, 1948.
Statement 4: Incorrect – Census data cannot be used as legal evidence.

Rupee doing fine, FM tells LS as currency crosses 95 a dollar

Context
Indian Rupee depreciated to ₹95 per dollar (all-time low) amid:
West Asia conflict
Rising crude oil prices (~$104/barrel)
FII outflows
Finance Minister maintains that economic fundamentals remain strong.
Extent of Depreciation
Rupee fell:
From ~₹91 (March 2026) → ~₹95
Overall depreciation:
~4.1% since West Asia conflict began
Implication:
Reflects external shocks rather than domestic weakness alone.
Prelims concepts
1. Currency Depreciation vs. Devaluation
Depreciation: A decrease in the value of a domestic currency relative to foreign currencies in a floating exchange rate system (like India's). It is driven entirely by market forces—specifically, the supply and demand for the currency in the foreign exchange market.
Devaluation: A deliberate downward adjustment of a currency's value by the government or central bank, which occurs in a fixed exchange rate system.
Impact: Depreciation generally makes imports more expensive (leading to "imported inflation") but can make a country's exports cheaper and more competitive in the global market.
2. Key Drivers of Rupee Depreciation
Rising Crude Oil Prices:
India imports most of its oil → higher global prices increase dollar demand → rupee weakens.
FII/FPI Outflows:
Foreign investors withdraw funds → sell rupees and buy dollars → rupee depreciates.
3. RBI's Intervention: Net Open Position (NOP)
What it is: The article mentions the RBI capping the Net Open Position for banks at USD 100 million (or 25% of the bank's capital). A Net Open Position is essentially the difference between a bank's assets and liabilities in a foreign currency.
Why cap it: Banks sometimes engage in proprietary trading, betting on currency movements. By capping the NOP, the central bank restricts banks from hoarding foreign exchange or taking massive speculative positions that assume the Rupee will keep falling. This helps curb artificial volatility and panic in the onshore currency market.
4. The "Fragile Five" Economies
Origin: A term coined by a financial analyst at Morgan Stanley in 2013 to describe emerging market economies that were highly vulnerable to global financial shocks and capital outflows.
The Countries: The original five were India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey.
Why they were "fragile": At that time, these nations shared common macroeconomic vulnerabilities: high inflation, slowing growth, large current account deficits, and a heavy reliance on short-term foreign investment to finance those deficits.




UPSC MCQ:
Q. Consider the following statements:
A rise in crude oil prices can lead to depreciation of the Indian Rupee.
Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) outflows can put downward pressure on the domestic currency.
Depreciation of the rupee always worsens India’s export competitiveness.
The Reserve Bank of India can intervene in the forex market to reduce excessive volatility in the exchange rate.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
A) 1, 2 and 4 only
B) 1 and 3 only
C) 2, 3 and 4 only
D) 1, 2, 3 and 4
Correct Answer:
A) 1, 2 and 4 only
Explanation
Statement 1: Correct – Higher oil imports increase dollar demand → rupee weakens.
Statement 2: Correct – FII outflows lead to capital outflow → depreciation pressure.
Statement 3: Incorrect – Depreciation generally improves export competitiveness.
Statement 4: Correct – RBI intervenes to stabilise forex markets