Renewed Risks

GS 3: Economy

Context

In the face of global unpredictability, the RBI retains its 6.5% GDP prediction; worries about the Israel-Hamas war, rising US bond yields, and supply disruptions surface.


The RBI's Apprehensions and Growing Uncertainties

· GDP Growth Projection Maintained: Citing risks from geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, the RBI maintains a steady GDP growth projection.

· The development of the Israel-Hamas conflict and worries about the availability of food, gasoline, and fertilizer globally give rise to new uncertainty.

· Growing US Treasury Yields: The RBI expresses concern about the country's 16-year-high US Treasury yields as well as the erratic global central bank signals.


Crucial Signs

· The Finance Ministry is optimistic about the future, stating that growth is still expected to continue and that inflation is starting to decline following a seasonal increase.

· Concerns About Crude Oil Prices Addressed: Ministry notes that this quarter's prices are less than those of prior quarters.

· Positive Indicators: Demand for investments and consumption is increasing, and there are good chances for the creation of industrial jobs and home loans.


Difficulties with Consumption

· Uneven Recovery: Demand in rural areas decreases, small car sales fall, and IT companies reduce expansion and hiring plans.

· Corrective Actions Are Necessary: According to the editorial, measures must be made to rectify the uneven recovery as it may impede a larger wave of investment.

· Possible Repercussions: India's economic recovery may face long-term challenges as a result of the decline in hiring and spending patterns.


LTX Mains Question:

Q. Examine the issues with hiring and consumption patterns that were raised in the editorial. What policies may be put in place by the government to guarantee a more sustainable and equitable economic recovery?

{{Mounica Sukhavasi}}

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