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Context
According to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) forecasts for economic growth, India's economy is currently experiencing momentum due to factors including formalization and credit growth, both of which have an impact on the country's prospects for sustained growth.
Economic vigor and positivity
· GDP Growth Forecasts: The RBI kept India's GDP growth projection at 6.5%, however the IMF raised it to 3% for 2023–2024. With a 6.7% prediction, the author is even more upbeat and provides encouraging data.
· Reasons for Optimism: There are several reasons for optimism, such as favorable monsoon patterns, ongoing capital spending, a strong number of newly registered companies, and steady credit growth.
· Credit Growth: Credit growth is thought to be a key factor in the acceleration of the economy, especially among individuals who have never had credit before. It's comforting to see the statistics on household debt and the formalization of the economy.
Changing Credit Dynamics
· Credit and GDP Relationship: The author talks about how the credit-to-GDP growth is changing. She emphasizes that in 2023–24, it might be around seven times, which would indicate strong fund flow to the economy.
· The New Normal: The banking sector's new normal, which is characterized by rising credit–to–GDP ratios, is expected to drive sustained growth.
· The outlook for sustained growth is that the country's economy will continue to grow.
Challenges:
· Concerns about Credit Portfolio: The increase in outstanding credit card and unsecured portfolios suggests that the concerns are manageable.
· Programs for Inclusion: Government initiatives like PM SVANidhi and Jan Dhan Yojana are seen as essential for facilitating credit access for undeserved households.
· Key Takeaway: While upending earlier credit-GDP connections, India's changing credit structure is fostering economic growth.
LTX Mains Question:
Q. Discuss about how India's credit-to-GDP growth dynamics are shifting and how it is affecting the outlook and sustainability of the economy in that nation.
{{Mounica Sukhavasi}}