CLIMATE TIPPING POINTS

GS3 Syllabus Topic: Environmental conservation; Environmental pollution and degradation; Environmental Impact Assessment


Why in News?

This year’s Summer’s biblical floods, apocalyptic fires and life-threatening heat domes, can be regarded as effects of climate tipping point.

Climate scientists and ecologists who study tipping points say that these are extreme events amplified by global warming and they’ve been warning about climate tipping points for years.


What are Climate Tipping Points?

Climate Tipping Points or CTPs are markers of a larger climate system which when triggered beyond a threshold, perpetuates warming on its own.


What are the recent Tipping Points?

· According to the Study, five dangerous tipping points may already have been passed due to the 1.1o C of global heating caused by humanity to date.

· These include the collapse of Greenland’s ice cap, eventually producing a huge sea level rise, the collapse of a key current in the north Atlantic, disrupting rain upon which billions of people depend for food, and an abrupt melting of carbon-rich permafrost.

· At 1.5o C, five tipping points become possible, including changes to vast northern forests and the loss of almost all mountain glaciers, the die-off of tropical coral reefs and changes to the west African monsoon.

· In total, the researchers found evidence for 16 tipping points, with the final six requiring global heating of at least 2o C to be triggered.

· The tipping points would take effect on timescales varying from a few years to centuries.

· At more than 2o C, the nine global tipping points identified are the collapse of Greenland, West Antarctic, and two parts of the east Antarctic ice sheets, the partial and total collapse of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), Amazon dieback, permafrost collapse and winter sea ice loss in the Arctic.

· Other potential tipping points still being studied include the loss of ocean oxygen and major shifts in the Indian summer monsoon.


Significance of studying Tipping Points:

The sixth report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released in 2021, defines a tipping point as a “critical threshold beyond which a system reorganizes, often abruptly and/or irreversibly”.

· It can be brought about by a small disturbance causing a disproportionately large change in the system. It can also be associated with self-reinforcing feedbacks, which could lead to changes in the climate system irreversible on a human timescale.

· For any particular climate component, the shift from one state to a new stable state may take many decades or centuries.

· A danger is that if the tipping point in one system is crossed, this could cause a cascade of other tipping points, leading to severe, potentially catastrophic, impacts.

· In ecosystems and in social systems, a tipping point can trigger a regime shift, a major systems reorganization into a new stable state.Such regime shifts need not be harmful.

· In the context of the climate crisis, the tipping point metaphor is sometimes used in a positive sense, such as to refer to shifts in public opinion in favour of action to mitigate climate change, or the potential for minor policy changes to rapidly accelerate the transition to a green economy.


Way Forward:

· The assessment provides strong scientific evidence for urgent action to mitigate climate change.

· Currently the world is heading toward ~2 to 3°C of global warming, at best, if all net-zero pledges and nationally determined contributions are implemented it could reach just below 2°C.

· This would lower tipping point risks somewhat but would still be dangerous as it could trigger multiple climate tipping points


Mains Question:

Q: Discuss in detail about Climate Tipping Points. Also discuss the consequences if they are not controlled?

{{Chandra Sir}}

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